Indian Pharma Sector Predicts a Growth of 8-10 Percent In Fy 2024

ICRA published its analysis of the local pharmaceutical market and predicted revenue increase of 8–10% for the fiscal year 2024. The Indian pharmaceutical industry (IPM) saw a solid compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.7% between FY2014 and FY2023, despite experiencing numerous disruptive events in recent years. Price hikes and the launch of new products have been the main drivers of growth in recent years, even while volume growth has been negative or at most only 2-3%. ICRA expects growth for its sample set of 25 companies, accounting for ~60 per cent of the Indian pharmaceutical industry to sustain at 8-10 per cent in FY2024.

This is likely to be supported by continued price increases, new product launches and rising penetration of healthcare services in semi-urban and rural areas, as per economic times. Since FY2022, the increase of acute therapies, which make up between 62 and 65 percent of the IPM, has outpaced that of chronic therapies. But moving forward, the pattern is anticipated to change. The expansion of chronic therapies in the IPM is anticipated to outpace that of acute therapies due to the rising incidence of lifestyle disorders and the lengthy nature of medical training for chronic diseases.

Currently, sales of products on the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM) account for 17–18% of the IPM, with some businesses getting 30% of their sales from NLEM medications. Due to the rapid WPI inflation, the price rise permitted for medications under the NLEM was higher for FY2024 at 12.1%. For NLEM medications, a double-digit price increase is now permitted for the second year in a row. Regulations of the National Medical Commission (NMC) are being proposed to amend to encourage genericization. Recent guidelines from the NMC for physicians mandate that they only recommend generic medications, never specific brands.